It is widely known that economists failed to predict the Great Recession of 2008-09. It is less widely known that economists can never predict transitions from booms to recessions and vice-versa, except by accident.
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Fatefully, economic theorists are responsible for many economic failures in the third world but cannot take credit for successful development.
Deputy President William Ruto’s customized ‘bottoms-up economic model' - designed by controversial economist David Ndii - equally has nothing to offer Kenyans.
2022 presidential race factor
It is simply a scheme to win over gullible Kenyans as the 2022 presidential race hots up.
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The subject was the b*tt of all jokes on Wednesday, July 28, after some MPs allied to Ruto weirdly fumbled as they struggled to explain the ‘bottom-up’ model.
Kandara MP Alice Wahome appeared not to have the slightest of ideas about the model during a show on Citizen TV, even referring to it as ‘bottom-down’.
It was disturbing to any neutral observer that even leaders aligned to the Hustler Nation are not bothering to understand their own ideas that they have been busy trying to push down the throats of millions of Kenyans from political podiums.
However, the truth is that Kenya’s problems will not be remedied by the various economic models or approaches being floated; all the country needs are morally upright leaders.
Empowering the least advantaged citizens
Picture this, Ruto has claimed he wants to empower the least advantaged citizens to be the drivers of the economy. There is nothing new there.
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This category of the citizenry has been actively participating in driving the economy for decades, only that the distribution of wealth has been skewed in favour of the rich.
The massive infrastructure development undertaken by the government as part of the Vision 2030 economic blueprint seeks to open up the economy and has been done to empower the people.
Theoretically, a pure bottom-up approach requires developing institutions from the grassroots level, developing local capacity for self-government, raising public awareness, promoting representation of all communities and providing an ideal environment for the development of local administrative units as the basis for a decentralized government.
The 2010 Constitution
All this is interestingly included in the 2010 Constitution in the form of devolution.
To be fair to the architects of the current Supreme Law, devolution has in the last nine years achieved much more than what Ruto is proposing in his ‘bottoms-up’ approach or what many other politicians have to offer.
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A bottom-up model is thus nothing new in Kenya, only that it perhaps needs more commitment about implementation.
But if the politics in Kenya remained what it is, the people who will benefit even from a bottom-up economy are those who should not.
There must be equitable production and distribution of goods and services for the bottom-up approach to work and how people access them. Whatever is produced must also be honoured locally.
For instance, look at the amount of maize going to waste across the country, yet farmers are still producing more; many bags of maize will go to waste because the produce is still being imported.
Ironically, Ruto’s names always surface whenever the chief importers of maize in the country are being discussed.
In 2010, Ruto survived an impeachment motion after being linked to a maize scandal while serving as the agriculture minister.
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In 2018, MPs Alfred Keter (Nandi Hills) and Joshua Kutuny (Cherangany) claimed Ruto was the source of local maize farmers' problems.
They alleged Ruto was advising farmers to abandon maize farming and start growing avocado and other crops because he wanted to monopolize the local maize market.
While the claims were unsubstantiated, the onus is on Ruto to vindicate himself, particularly by showing what he has done to boost the agriculture sector - a major bottom-up pillar - during his stint in the ministry and during his nine years as DP.
If he strongly believes he has a cure to problems facing millions of Kenyans today, then he has to explain why he has deemed it fit to defer an available solution to an existing national problem.
There is every indication that his bottom-up pledge could end up being one of the key deceptions of our time.
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Surreptitiously, Ruto uses the term “hustler” rather than “the poor” tag to portray himself as a saviour.
He has used all trickery to portray himself as an ordinary, lowly Kenyan. But as a matter of fact, he is a well-educated tycoon holding a PhD and is among the best political schemers in Kenyan politics.
Ruto is inciting the rich against the poor
The hustler narrative recklessly incites the rich against the poor, and Ruto plans to ride on the resultant divisions to rise to power.
And this could prove costly.
During his reign in Uganda, the late Idd Amin ordered all Asians who had not taken Ugandan nationality to leave the country in 1972.
The move won considerable approval because many Africans believed they had been exploited by the Asians - who controlled the economy - but the action isolated Uganda from the rest of the world.
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Furthermore, grievance politics are never about one axis of inequality, even if that appears on the surface.
The Hustler-Dynasty frame is no exception; it resonates for reasons well beyond class.
The writer is Mike Kinja, a regular commentator on social, economic and pollical affairs.
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